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forecast methodology aims at addressing these challenges. The algorithm is said to be “adaptive” insofar as it adapts to the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012203223
Blanchard and Leigh (2013, 2014) find fiscal multipliers to be underestimated in the EU in the deep recession of the early 2010s. Using two 2013-2018 datasets for 26 EU member states, assembled from Stability and Convergence Programmes and the European Commission's Spring Forecasts, we show that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012307864
A reason for revising the EU fiscal rules in the early 2010s was to improve member states' forecasts against a background of documented biases in official projections. Using data from Stability and Convergence Programmes and the European Commission's Spring Forecasts, evidence is presented which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012307736
We provide a comprehensive examination of whether, to what extent, and which accounting variables are useful for improving the predictive accuracy of GDP growth forecasts. We leverage statistical models that accommodate a broad set of (341) variables---outnumbering the total time-series...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012586393
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013262971
In the article the authors attempted to develop the neoclassical model of economic growth, repealing two assumptions regarding the Solow growth model. First of all, the authors assume that the growth path of the number of employees is increasing asymptotically to a fixed value, not to infinity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012176006
for the world and for both the advanced economies and the emerging and developing economies. With a focus on the forecast … months old. In particular, there is an obvious gain using leading indicators from January to March for the forecast of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011878368
The ability of term spread to forecast U.S. output growth could be improved by two ways: (i) Combining with the Harrod …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012900448
distribution of the forecast errors made by the institutes, and then fit a skewed t-distribution to the estimated quantiles. We use … the resulting density forecasts to compute the log probability score of the predicted forecast errors. Based on an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012285443
theory (cf. e.g. Mukherjee, 2017; Veltri, 2017). This article proposes so-called Dynamic Factor Trees (DFT) and Dynamic … reduce to the standard Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) as a special case and allow us to embed theory-led factor models in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012172506