All types of recessions, on average, not just those associated with financial and political crises (as in Cerra and Saxena, AER 2008), lead to permanent output losses. These findings have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. A new paradigm of the business cycle needs to account for...

This paper studies the effect of optimal macroprudential policy in a small open economy model where growth is endogenous. By introducing endogenous growth, this model is able to capture the persistent effect of financial crises on output, which is different from previous literature but...

In this paper, we investigate the impact of macroprudential policy measures (bundled together into a macroprudential policy index, MPI) on the non-financial corporate sector credit and household credit growth using a one-step system GMM empirical research method. The goal of our paper is to test...

Using a sample that covers more than 100 countries over the 2000-2017 period, we assess the impact of macroprudential policies on financial stability. In particular, we examine whether the activation of macroprudential policies is conducive to a lower incidence of systemic banking crises. Our...

We introduce endogenous growth in an otherwise standard NK model with staggered prices and wages. Some results follow: (i) monetary volatility negatively affects long-run growth; (ii) the relation between nominal volatility and growth depends on the persistence of the nominal shocks and on the...

We incorporate quantile regressions into a structural vector autoregression model to empirically assess how monetary and fiscal policy influence risks around future GDP growth. Using a panel of six developed countries, we find that both policy instruments affect the location of the distribution...

Considering the deep and long-lasting impact of severe recessions, such as the 2008-09 financial crisis, it is important that measures be taken to minimise the risk of such event. But in doing so the benefits need to be balanced against the potential costs in terms of lower average growth that...

Banking crises have severe short and long‑term consequences. We develop a general equilibrium model with financial frictions and endogenous growth in which macroprudential policy supports economic activity and productivity growth by strengthening bank’s resilience to adverse financial...

This article investigates the effects of macroeconomic policy (monetary and fiscal) on output growth during financial crises characterized by a sudden stopʺ in net capital inflows in developing and emerging market economies. We investigate 83 sudden stop crises in 77 countries over 1982-2003...

We study an economy with a high degree of financialization in which (non-financial) firms need loans from commercial banks to finance production, service debt, and make long-term investments. Along the business cycle, the economy follows Minskyan dynamics with firms traversing various stages of...