This paper resolves a question proposed in Kardaras and Robertson [Ann. Appl. Probab. 22 (2012) 1576-1610]: how to invest in a robust growth-optimal way in a market where precise knowledge of the covariance structure of the underlying assets is unavailable. Among an appropriate class of...

An error-correction model identifies determinants of growth consistent with results from panel regressions based on a standard Cobb-Douglas production function for El Salvador for 1970-1995, with structural factors affecting the technology variable and macroeconomics and expectations explaining...

We conduct an out-of-sample backtesting exercise of Growth-at-Risk (GaR) predictions for 24 OECD countries. We consider forecasts constructed from quantile regression and GARCH models. The quantile regression forecasts are based on a set of recently proposed measures of downside risks to GDP,...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...