The paper provides probability estimates of the state of the GDP growth. A regime-switching model defines the probability of the Greek GDP being in boom or recession. Then probit models extract the predictive information of a set of explanatory (economic and financial) variables regarding the...

This study examined the composition effect of government expenditure on private consumption and output growth in Nigeria using the framework of single equation error correction mechanism. The unit root and cointegration tests were conducted on the variables of interest while single equations...

This paper aims to investigate the mechanism of adjustment in the labor market with respect to changes in GDP. For this purpose, the response of employment, i.e. demand for labor, to the changes in GDP is modeled as an error correction model (ECM). The results indicate that the adjustments in...

Many modelling issues and policy debates in macroeconomics depend on whether macroeconomic times series are best characterized as linear or nonlinear. If departures from linearity exist, it is important to know whether these are endogenously generated (as in, e.g., a threshold autoregressive...

Many modelling issues and policy debates in macroeconomics depend on whether macroeconomic time series are best characterized as linear or nonlinear. If departures from linearity exist, it is important to know whether these are endogenously generated (as in, e.g. a threshold autoregressive...

Global economic activity is surrounded by increasing uncertainties from various sources. In this paper, we focus on commodity prices and estimate a global commodity uncertainty factor by capturing comovement in volatilities of major agricultural, metals and energy commodity markets through a...