The document contains a detailed description of the current domestic and external macroeconomic conditions, and a consistent set of forecasts. The analysis covers existing mutual links among six economies (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan) and their key trading...

The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) provides growth and inflation forecasts for more than 40 economies in the region. This paper assesses the accuracy of those forecasts against actual outcomes for the years from 2008 to 2011. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts by the International...

Many empirical studies have shown that factor models produce relatively accurate forecasts compared to alternative short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and different forecast horizons. However, various specifications...

This is done in relation to the benchmark of World Economic Outlook (WEO) projections by the International Monetary Fund. Amid much heterogeneity across countries and years, it has been found that ADO and WEO projections overlap quite closely. Both are inaccurate, especially during crisis years,...

We study the long-run interaction between Germany’s economic growth trajectory and demographic aging. Using a comprehensive dataset, we leverage the classical production function approach to estimate potential output growth between 1970 and 2070. We account for the inherent uncertainty in our...

Time varying patterns in US growth are analyzed using various univariate model structures, starting from a naive model structure where all features change every period to a model where the slow variation in the conditional mean and changes in the conditional variance are specified together with...

This paper backtests a nowcast of Japan's real GDP growth. Its distinguishing features are use of genuine real-time data, a new revision analysis to track the nowcast's evolution, and a comparison with a market consensus forecast at 13 monthly forecasting horizons. The nowcast's forecasting...

Many empirical studies have shown that factor models produce relatively accurate forecasts compared to alternative short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and different forecast horizons. However, various specifications...