This paper shows that the explanation of the decline in the volatility of GDP growth since the mid-eighties is not the decline in the volatility of exogenous shocks but rather a change in their propagation mechanism.

Die führenden Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute senken ihre BIP-Wachstumsprognose für 2021 von 3,7 % auf 2,4 %. Dafür ist insbesondere die schwächelnde Industrieproduktion verantwortlich, die unter Lieferengpässen leidet. Die internationale Konjunktur erholt sich zwar von den Verwerfungen der...

This paper presents a method to conduct early estimates of GDP growth in Germany. We employ MIDAS regressions to circumvent the mixed frequency problem and use pooling techniques to summarize efficiently the information content of the various indicators. More specifically, we investigate whether...

This paper examines Papua New Guinea's economic growth record within a simple growth ccounting framework. The analysis shows that reductions in growth are mostly accounted for by a significant slowdown in capital inputs and lower total factor productivity growth. On average, no productivity...

With fiscal adjustment proceeding quickly in Bulgaria and given the weak economic growth environment, there is keen interest in making the budget composition more growth friendly. This paper quantifies the short-term impact of fiscal policy on economic activity in Bulgaria using econometric and...

Low positive GDP growth has been interpreted as evidence that the economy may be "stalling", implying that low growth is a strong predictor of future recessions. We examine the empirical evidence for stalling based on kernel density estimates, probit estimates and Markov switching models....

We present a new composite leading indicator of economic activity in mainland China, estimated using a dynamic factor model. Our leading indicator is constructed from three series: exports, a real estate climate index, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange index. These series are found to share a...

This paper evaluates the performance of two alternative policy rules, a forward-looking rule and a spontaneous adjustment rule, under alternative inflation targets, in terms of output losses in a macroeconomic model, using European Union data. The simulations suggest that forward-looking rules...

This paper has examined Papua New Guinea's historical economic growth patterns through a simple growth accounting framework. The analysis shows that swings in growth are mostly accounted for by a significant slowdown in capital input and lower Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth. It also...

This paper analyzes the sources of Mexico's economic growth since the 1960s and compares various decompositions of historical growth into its trend and cyclical components. The role of the implied output gaps in the inflationary process is then assessed. Looking ahead, the paper presents...