Macroeconomic imbalances increase the vulnerability of an economy to adverse shocks, which in turn can lead to crises with severe economic and social costs. We propose an early warning model that predicts such crises. We identify a set of macroeconomic indicators capturing domestic and external...

In recent years, diverging demand and growth regimes have received greater scholarly attention. In particular, the intersection between different variants of Comparative Political Economy and the post-Keynesian macroeconomic analysis provides a promising avenue for understanding the main...

The IMF's Vulnerability Exercise (VE) is a cross-country exercise that identifies country-specific near-term macroeconomic risks. As a key element of the Fund's broader risk architecture, the VE is a bottom-up, multi-sectoral approach to risk assessments for all IMF member countries. The VE...

South Africa is a developing country faced with diverse challenges like high unemployment, poverty, inequality and low economic growth. In an attempt to address these issues, government can embark on borrowing and incur public debt. Countries that run large persistent public debt signal negative...

The issue of whether public debt is useful or harmful towards economic growth is one of the most prevailing debates in the literature with no consensus existing on the subject matter. The study employs the ARDL model to examine the long-run and short-run effects of public debt on economic growth...