The main contributions of this paper are to introduce growth into a crisis framework and to derive the contingency plans for consumption and investment in a manner consistent with the stochastic nature of the state of the economy. The conclusion is that expected deviations from trend in the...

Currency collapses, defined as large nominal depreciations or devaluations, are associated with permanent output losses on the order of 6% of GDP on average. In this feature, we argue that the fact that these losses tend to materialise before a drop in the value of the currency indicates that it...

We attempt to analyze the effects of the currency crises on the long-run growth by using a cross-sectional country data set. After controlling for the post-crisis period, we find that the effects of the currency crises on the long-run growth are strictly negative and significant. We also find...

A technical analysis shows that the doomsayers who support the euro at all costs and those who naively theorize that a single currency is the root of all evil are both wrong. A euro exit could be a way of getting back to growth, but at the same time it would entail serious risks, especially for...

Der Beitrag analysiert die Argentinien-Krise, vergleicht die makroökonomische Entwicklung von Argentinien, Brasilien, Chile und Mexiko seit der Mexiko-Krise und entwickelt Indikatoren zur Beurteilung der Entwicklungschancen dieser Länder. Für Argentinien wie für Brasilien, Chile und Mexiko...

Macroeconomic adjustment in the euro area periphery was more recessionary than pre-crisis imbalances would have warranted. To make this claim, this paper uses a Propensity Score Matching Model to produce counterfactuals for the Eurozone crisis countries (Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Cyprus, Spain)...

Macroeconomic adjustment in the euro area periphery was more recessionary than pre-crisis imbalances would have warranted. To make this claim, this paper uses a Propensity Score Matching Model to produce counterfactuals for the Eurozone crisis countries (Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Cyprus, Spain)...

Based on a dataset of 112 emerging economies and developing countries, this paper addresses the question whether the accumulation of international reserves has effectively protected countries during the 2008-09 financial crisis. More specifically, the paper investigates the relation between...