This paper provides an assessment of Russia’s long-term growth prospects. In particular, it addresses the question of the medium- and long-term sustainability of the country’s currently high growth rates. Starting from the notion that Russia’s fast economic expansion in recent years has...

This paper presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise. A baseline scenario assuming gradual structural reform and fiscal consolidation to stabilise government-debt-to GDP ratios is...

This report presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise. A baseline scenario assuming gradual structural reform and fiscal consolidation to stabilise government-debt-to GDP ratios is...

This paper explores the role of managerial capital and business research and development (R&D) in fostering multifactor productivity (MFP) convergence in a panel of 42 countries. The OECD long-term growth model is augmented to show that, in addition to trade openness, an economy’s speed of...

The “middle-income trap” is the phenomenon of hitherto rapidly growing economies stagnating at middle-income levels and failing to graduate into the ranks of high-income countries. In this study we examine the middle-income trap as a special case of growth slowdowns, which are identified as...

A growing body of theoretical and empirical literature analyses the relationship between finance and economic growth. The relationship has been strongly supported by many empirical analyses. However, Global Financial Crisis, 2008 and significantly improved econometric techniques made scholars to...

In the euro area, there is mixed evidence that the GDP per capita of lower-income economies has been catching up with that of higher-income economies since the start of monetary union. The significant real convergence performance of some of the most recent members contrasts with that of the...

Central bankers often assert that anchoring of inflation expectations and reducing inflation uncertainty are good for economic outcomes. We test this claim and search for a relevant channel using panel data on sectoral growth for 22 manufacturing industries from 36 advanced and emerging market...

[enter Abstract Body]In this chapter, we review the recent and growing literature on medium-term growth patterns. This strand of research emerged from the realization that for most countries economic development is a highly unstable process; over a few decades, a typical country enjoys periods...

This paper develops and applies a simple “conditional growth” framework to make long-term GDP projections for the world economy, taking as a starting point recent empirical evidence about the importance of total factor productivity and human capital in explaining current cross-country...