An assessment of the current state of housing viewed from the perspective of the slowly-recovering economy, coupled with valuations of the housing market, suggests there is a high likelihood of a double dip in housing prices. With current prices nearly 30 percent below their April 2006 peak, an...

The widespread emergence of intangible technologies in recent decades may have significantly hurt output growth -- even when these technologies replaced considerably less productive tangible technologies -- because of structurally low interest rates caused by demographic forces. This insight is...

This paper explores the link between short-run cycles and long-run growth by examining the cyclicality of Ramp;D. Existing theories propose that Ramp;D is concentrated when output is low, but aggregate data repeatedly show that Ramp;D appears procyclical. We estimate the relationship between...

Although firm financial policies were affected by a credit contraction during the recent financial crisis, the impact of increased uncertainty and decreased growth opportunities was stronger than that of the credit contraction per se. From the start of the financial crisis (third quarter of...

There is considerable controversy over why sluggish economic growth persists across many advanced economies six years after the onset of the financial crisis. Theories include a secular deficiency in aggregate demand, slowing innovation, adverse demographics, lingering policy uncertainty,...

The rapid accumulation of private debt is widely viewed as a major risk to financial and economic stability. This paper systematically and comprehensively assesses the effect of private debt buildup on economic growth. In the spirit of Mian, Sufi, and Verner (2017) that separately examine the...

This paper assesses the potential economic impact of Next Generation EU (NGEU), focusing on the euro area. Its findings suggest that the envisaged national investment and reform plans present a coherent package to support both recovery from the pandemic-induced crisis and longer-term...

This paper investigates how financial development affects aggregate productivity growth. Based on a sample of developed and emerging economies, we first show that the level of financial development is good only up to a point, after which it becomes a drag on growth. Second, focusing on advanced...