The rapid accumulation of private debt is widely viewed as a major risk to financial and economic stability. This paper systematically and comprehensively assesses the effect of private debt buildup on economic growth. In the spirit of Mian, Sufi, and Verner (2017) that separately examine the...

This paper assesses the potential economic impact of Next Generation EU (NGEU), focusing on the euro area. Its findings suggest that the envisaged national investment and reform plans present a coherent package to support both recovery from the pandemic-induced crisis and longer-term...

This paper investigates how financial development affects aggregate productivity growth. Based on a sample of developed and emerging economies, we first show that the level of financial development is good only up to a point, after which it becomes a drag on growth. Second, focusing on advanced...

On June 4-5, 2014, SUERF and Baffi Finlawmetrics jointly organised a Colloquium/Conference "Money, Regulation and Growth: Financing New Growth in Europe" at Bocconi University, Milan. The present SUERF Study includes a selection of papers based on the authors’ contributions to the Milan event....

This paper investigates the long-run consequences of economic disasters. The research is based on the historical data for 38 OECD and non OECD countries over the last two centuries. Results of the research indicate the negative long-run effect of economic disasters on output growth. The research...

The paper examines changes in the Bulgarian economy following the global financial and economic crisis of 2008. The discussion is primarily based on the behavior of economic agents in the crisis – households and companies. The paper also seeks to address the changes in the external and fiscal...

In this work we study the granular origins of business cycles and their possible underlying drivers. As shown by Gabaix (2011), the skewed nature of firm size distributions implies that idiosyncratic (and independent) firm-level shocks may account for a significant portion of aggregate...

With fiscal adjustment proceeding quickly in Bulgaria and given the weak economic growth environment, there is keen interest in making the budget composition more growth friendly. This paper quantifies the short-term impact of fiscal policy on economic activity in Bulgaria using econometric and...