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Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth : The Volatility Link
Maheu, John M.; Song, Yong; Yang, Qiao - 2019
This paper shows that oil shocks primarily impact economic growth through the conditional variance of growth. Our comparison of models focuses on density forecasts. Over a range of dynamic models, oil shock measures and data we fi nd a robust link between oil shocks and the volatility of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014114772
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Why have the recent oil price declines not stimulated global economic growth?
Theobald, Thomas; Hohlfeld, Peter - 2017
We analyze the global relationship between oil prices, commodity-specific financial marketshocks and economic activity by means of Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) models for the period 1996 - 2015. For the financial market variables in our model, we use a breakdown of G-20 countries into...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011720456
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No-Arbitrage Near-Cointegrated Var(p) Term Structure Models, Term Premia and GDP Growth
Jardet, Caroline - 2011
The recent macro-finance yield curve literature does not agree neither about term premia empirical properties nor about the importance or even the direction of its relationship with future economic activity. This paper proposes a two-step approach to handle both problems. First, in a VAR...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013132933
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Revisiting the Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Macroeconomic Performance : An International Perspective
Shen, Yifan - 2019
Dramatic fluctuations in oil prices from time to time demand more research that can evaluate the impact of oil price shocks across the globe. Using a large-scale structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model that allows for an evolving parameter structure and that covers 60 oil-importing and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012897959
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Macroeconomic responses of emerging market economies to oil price shocks:analysis by region and resource profile
Togonidze, Sophio; Kočenda, Evžen - 2020
This study employs a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to analyse how oil price shocks affect macroeconomic fundamentals in emerging economies. Findings from existing literature remain inconclusive how macroeconomic variables fare towards shocks, especially in emerging economies. The objective...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012289734
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Oil prices and the global economy : is it different this time around?
Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2016
The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the US and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to lower...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011502542
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Evaluation of long-dated investments under uncertain growth trend, volatility and catastrophes
Gollier, Christian - 2012
Because of the uncertainty about how to model the growth process of our economy, there is still much confusion about which discount rates should be used to evaluate actions having long-lasting impacts, as in the contexts of climate change, social security reforms or large public infrastructures...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009689360
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The Yield Curve and Predicting Recessions
Wright, Jonathan H. - 2006
The slope of the Treasury yield curve has often been cited as a leading economic indicator, with inversion of the curve being thought of as a harbinger of a recession. In this paper, I consider a number of probit models using the yield curve to forecast recessions. Models that use both the level...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012733723
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Evaluation of Long-Dated Investments Under Uncertain Growth Trend, Volatility and Catastrophes
Gollier, Christian - 2021
Because of the uncertainty about how to model the growth process of our economy, there is still much confusion about which discount rates should be used to evaluate actions having long-lasting impacts, as in the contexts of climate change, social security reforms or large public infrastructures...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315817
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Understanding asset correlations
Burkhardt, Dominic; Hasseltoft, Henrik - 2012 - This draft: September 2012
We document an inverse relation between stock-bond correlations and correlations of growth and inflation. We find that … rising inflation uncertainty lowers stock prices but can either lower or raise nominal bond prices depending on whether … important drivers of stock-bond correlations during the countercyclical period 1965-2000 while output shocks dominated during …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009684165