Showing 1 - 10 of 3,539
We introduce a novel quantitative methodology to detect real estate bubbles and forecast their critical end time, which … possible turning points of the markets in BeiJing, ShangHai, ShenZhen, GuangZhou, TianJin and ChengDu and forecast the future …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011761282
The COVID-19 pandemic further extended the multi-year housing boom in advanced economies and emerging markets alike against massive monetary easing during the pandemic. In this paper, we analyze the pricing-out phenomenon in the U.S. residential housing market due to higher house prices...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014258218
This paper proposes a framework for analysing speculative bubbles in housing markets. The formation of bubbles is investigated at the sub-city level, and a bubble index is constructed showing the timeline and the intensity of speculation. The city level bubble network is examined in detail, with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012927111
This paper proposes a framework for analysing speculative bubbles in housing markets. The formation of bubbles is investigated at the sub-city level, and a bubble index is constructed showing the timeline and the intensity of speculation. The city level bubble network is examined in detail, with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012924880
This paper investigates the presence of housing bubbles in Australia at the national, capital city, and local government area (LGA) levels. We control for housing market demand and supply fundamentals using the technique of Shi (2017), and employ the recursive evolving method proposed by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012863721
The main aim of this paper is to apply a method based on fundamentals ─ which has already been applied in the stock market analysis ─ to detect boom/bust in the housing market, with a focus on the euro area. In this context, an underlying model is developed and tested. It turns out that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013036277
Housing markets, which are large and subject to sharp swings, shape to a great extent countries’ exposure to economic crises and their capacity to recover from them. This paper analyses the transmission of housing-related shocks to the real economy: it investigates the role that policy plays...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012111101
House prices have inertia, which may be because housing-market participants need time to recognize long booms and recessions. Within a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with markets for housing and defaultable mortgages, I consider the case of imperfect knowledge and learning about...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011350522
In recent years the housing market in Malta has been characterised by significant demand and supply developments reflecting strong economic and population growth. While the determinants of house prices in Malta have long been studied and documented, much less is known about private sector rents,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012218999
This paper presents a simple disequilibrium model in the primary housing market, calibrated to the Warsaw market. Our aim is to point out that the primary housing market, due to the long construction process is always in disequilibrium, which has important policy implications. We discuss the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012982718