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We build an enhanced structural credit risk Merton style model for a risky sovereign having both domestic and foreign …
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This paper investigates the impact of international political risk on government bond yields in 34 debtor countries … number of international political crises as a proxy for political risk and controlling for country-specific economic … conditions, we establish a positive and significant link between international political risk and government bond yields. This is …
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This paper investigates the transmission of uncertainty about the state of government finances on economic activity. I first employ a data-rich approach to extract a novel proxy that captures uncertainty surrounding the public finances of the Spanish economy, to which I refer as sovereign...
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explores how much of these large movements reflected shifts in (i) global risk aversion (ii) country-specific risks, directly … in the crisis, the surge in global risk aversion was a significant factor influencing sovereign spreads, while recently … Spain, as the emphasis has shifted towards short-term refinancing risk and long-term fiscal sustainability. The paper …
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