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Is there asymmetry in the distribution of government bond returns in developed countries? Can asymmetries be predicted using financial and macroeconomic variables? To answer the first question, we provide evidence for asymmetry in government bond returns in particular for short maturities. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013086343
Since 1980, foreign investors have timed their purchases and sales of U.S. Treasurys to yield particularly low returns. Their annual dollar-weighted returns, measured by IRRs, are around 3% lower than a buy-and-hold strategy over the same horizon. In comparison, the IRRs achieved by domestic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210117
This study examines the behavior of sovereign bonds to COVID-19 related news in 24 countries most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The study applies a continuous Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to analyze the regime shifting behavior of sovereign bonds to the news. The results show that the COVID-19...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013212531
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relevant risk to bond holdings, monetary union has a distinct advantage over floating and fixed exchange rates because of its … credible in-built mechanism to control inflation. However, once default is seen as the most relevant risk, exchange rate … monetary union. Since the 2010s, inflation carries no penalty under any exchange rate regime. Variables linked to default risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013399873
depending on how other “push” and “pull” factors, such as investors' appetite for risk and emerging markets' economic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013083828
basis. Finally, when global financial risk is on the rise, US mutual fund managers repatriate their investments towards US …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014527087
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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011448871
changes in global risk (VIX). We find that inertia (whether the bond behaved as a safe asset in the past) and good … on whether the change in global risk is driven by financial shocks rather than by US monetary policy. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012138612