This is a pioneering effort to test the comparative performance of two competing models for out-of-sample forecasting the term structure of volatility of crude oil price changes employing both symmetric and asymmetric evaluation criteria. Under symmetric error statistics, our empirical model...

A consensus has recently emerged that a number of variables in addition to the level, slope, and curvature of the term structure can help predict interest rates and excess bond returns. We demonstrate that the statistical tests that have been used to support this conclusion are subject to very...

This paper investigates how a country's economic complexity influences its sovereign yield spread with respect to the United States. Notably, a one-unit increase in the Economic Complexity Index is associated with a reduction of about 87 basis points in the 10-year yield spread. However, this...