Die gegenwärtige Finanzkrise ruft uns in die Geschichte zurück. Sie weckt traumatische Erinnerungen an die Krise der 1930er Jahre, in deren Folge die Weimarer Republik unterging. Sie gibt zur Sorge Anlass, ob ein Konjunktureinbruch die Fundamente unserer Sozialsysteme in ähnlicher Weise...

This article provides empirical evidence from the ‘first wave of globalization’ in the 19th century for the question as to how commodity markets integrated domestically and internationally. I apply a dynamic factor model borrowed from business cycle analysis that for the first time allows me...

This paper constructs internationally consistent measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Our econometric framework extracts uncertainty from revisions in data obtained from standardized national accounts. Applying our model to quarterly post-WWII real-time data, we estimate macroeconomic...