Showing 1 - 10 of 378
pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010414783
nowcasting and forecasting quarterly world GDP using mixed-frequency models. We find that a recently proposed indicator that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012306598
We operationalize the definition of systemic risk provided by the IMF, BIS, and FSB and derive testable hypotheses to identify indicators of systemic risk. We map these hypotheses into a two-stage hierarchical testing framework, combining insights from the early-warning literature on financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012234486
Oil price showed sharp fluctuations in recent years which revived the interest in its effect on inflation. In this paper, we discuss the relationship between oil price and inflation in Spain, at national and regional levels, and making the distinction between energy and non-energy inflation. To...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012389041
forecasting solutions. In this context, the paper develops new forecasting methods for an old problem by employing 13 machine …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362692
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012300700
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013479661
This paper aims at assessing the role of the United States in the global economy and its evolution over time. The emergence of large economic players, like China, is likely to have weakened the role of the U.S. economy as a driver of global growth. Based on a Global VAR modelling approach, this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003832378
Forecasting the world economy is a difficult task given the complex interrelationships within and across countries …, first, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy and, second, at checking whether methods … forecasting directly aggregate variables (direct approaches) outperform methods based on the aggregation of country …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003867019
This paper characterizes business cycle phenomena in a sample of 22 developed and developing economies using a univariate Markov regime switching approach. It examines the efficacy of this approach for detecting business cycle turning points and for identifying distinct economic regimes for each...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008669967