In this paper we propose a new indicator of monthly global real economic activity, named world steel production. We use world steel production, OECD industrial production index and Kilian's rea index to forecast world real GDP, and key commodity prices. We find that world steel production...

We investigate the directional accuracy of GDP and price forecasts by the Japanese government and the IMF with a new method developed by Pesaran and Timmermann [Pesaran, M.H., Timmermann, A., 2009. Testing dependence among serially correlated multi-category variables. Journal of the American...

We investigate the directional accuracy of GDP and price forecasts by the Japanese government and the IMF with a new method developed by Pesaran and Timmermann [Pesaran, M.H., Timmermann, A., 2009. Testing dependence among serially correlated multi-category variables. Journal of the American...

Australian Steve Keen was, in fact, one of just 13 registered economists , out of a global total of around 36,000 (yes that really comes out as 0.04%), who actually anticipated the global financial crisis.Knowing this, I think it’s almost impossible not to want to read his latest book,...

Aggregating per capita gross domestic product growth across countries has always been a technical problem due to complexities in the relative movements of exchange rates, economic output, and populations. As such, the conventional approach to aggregating growth across countries suffers from...

We present a neo-classical model that explores the determinants of growth-inequality correlation and attempts to reconcile the seemingly conflicting evidence on the nature of the growth-inequality relationship. The initial distribution of human capital determines the long-run income distribution...

The ongoing debate regarding the significance of religion and language on economic performance (GDP) is inconclusive and non-exhaustive. We present a non-parametric partial least square – structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) analysis of within-country diversity and GDP. With a sample of 46...