U.S. estimates of the natural rate of interest – the real short-term interest rate that would prevail absent transitory disturbances – have declined dramatically since the start of the global financial crisis. For example, estimates using the Laubach-Williams (2003) model indicate the...

U.S. estimates of the natural rate of interest – the real short-term interest rate that would prevail absent transitory disturbances – have declined dramatically since the start of the global financial crisis. For example, estimates using the Laubach-Williams (2003) model indicate the...

We estimate output growth rate spectra for 58 countries. The spectra exhibit diverse shapes. To study the sources of this diversity, we estimate the short-run, business cycle, and long-run frequency components of the sampled series. For most OECD countries the bulk of the spectral mass is in the...

This study explores the effect of various demographic features on wealth share using yearly data for 43 countries. Empirical results from quantile regressions indicate that besides macroeconomic and institutional factors, population ageing and the high size of working population exhibit some...

Following the 2007-2009 global recession, economic policy uncertainty and its effect on economic recovery has become an issue of interest in academic, media as well as policy-making circles (Baker et al., 2013). Given this backdrop, we investigate causality between economic policy uncertainty in...

This paper reassesses the predictions of the standard Barro-type endogenous growth models drawing on recent developments in the panel time series literature. In particular, we employ the Common Correlated Effects (CCE) estimator developed in Pesaran (2006) and estimate the effects of fiscal...

We study economic growth in four emerging economies - Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC). Questions addressed are: (a) How do medium term growth determinants differ from short term determinants? (b) What are differences between growth effects of aggregate versus disaggregated exports? And...

This article studies the role of technology drivers in catching up at different stages of development. Countries can be at different stages of development when entering in a new catching-up cycle. Thus, the technological drivers of growth [technological capabilities, external spillovers,...

This research argues that the differential effect of international trade on the demand for human capital across countries has been a major determinant of the distribution of income and population across the globe. In developed countries the gains from trade have been directed towards investment...