This paper studies the impact of the state-dependent risk of a government default on the correlation of the scal balance and current account. We use a small open economy model where nonlinear risk premia arise endogenously when the government operates close to its scal limit, i.e. the maximum...

This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. This panel unobserved components model features a monetary transmission mechanism, a fiscal transmission mechanism, and extensive macrofinancial linkages, both within...

Using foreign currency long-term sovereign rating data from 93 countries and for more than 30 years, panel data econometric analyses show non-monotonic relation between pro-cyclicality of government consumption and sovereign risk scores. That is, countries with limited access to foreign credits...

Under fixed exchange rates, fiscal policy is an effective tool. According to classical views because it impacts the real exchange rate, according to Keynesian views because it impacts output. Both views have merit because the effects of government spending are asymmetric. A spending cut lowers...

The Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM) is a group of models developed by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy analysis. A typical module of FSGM is a multi-region, forward-looking semi-structural global model consisting of 24 regions. Using the three core modules focused on...

This paper finds that debt-financed government spending multipliers vary considerably depending on the location of the debt buyer. In a sample of 33 countries, we find that government spending multipliers are larger when government purchases are financed by issuing debt to foreign investors...

We study the effects of fiscal policy in response to the COVID-19 pandemic at the firm, sector, country and global levels. First, we estimate the impact of COVID-19 and policy responses on small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) business failures. We combine firm-level financial data from 50...

Halving the US current account deficit as a share of GDP is likely to impose a burden of $2,350 per capita on the United States, which explains why US policymakers want to postpone adjustment. The rest of the world relies on the economic stimulus of a widening US external deficit, which explains...

We evaluate, both empirically and theoretically, the spillover effects that debt-financed fiscal policy interventions of the United States have on other economies. We first consider a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with international portfolio rebalancing effects...

The topic of contagion has gained importance in the last few decades, earning its place amongst the most debated topics in international economics. Contagion is a phenomenon where market disturbances in crisis times are observed to spread from one country to the other in the form of comovements...