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Exchange rate expectation, abnormal returns, and the COVID-19 pandemic
Beckmann, Joscha; Czudaj, Robert - 2022
developments into account while expectations for minor currencies react stronger to response policies. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012818059
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Do forecasters use monetary models? : an empirical analysis of exchange rate expectations
Schröder, Michael; Dornau, Robert - 2000
question analysed in this apper. In contrast to other studies we use expectations instead of realised data. Therefore we … analyse the implicit structural models forecasters have in mind when forming their exchange rate expectations. Using expected … short- and long-term interest rates and business expectations as explanatory variables we estimate latent structural models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011543374
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The impact of uncertainty on professional exchange rate forecasts
Beckmann, Joscha; Czudaj, Robert - 2016
This paper analyzes the role of uncertainty on both exchange rate expectations and forecast errors of professionals for … the adjustment of exchange rate expectations. Our findings are robust to different forecasting horizons and point to an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011532311
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Exchange rate expectation, abnormal returns, and the COVID-19 pandemic
Beckmann, Joscha; Czudaj, Robert - In: Journal of economic behavior & organization : JEBO 196 (2022), pp. 1-25
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013375039
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Carry trades, order flow and the forward bias puzzle
Breedon, Francis J.; Rime, Dagfinn; Vitale, Paolo - 2015
We investigate the relation between foreign exchange (FX) order flow and the forward bias. We outline a decomposition of the forward bias according to which a negative correlation between interest rate differentials and order flow creates a time-varying risk premium consistent with that bias....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011396784
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Method versus cross-country heterogeneity in the exchange rate pass-through
Iorngurum, Tersoo David - 2023
684 estimates for 108 countries. Because there are many potential causes of heterogeneity, I use Bayesian model averaging …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014286838
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Global imbalances and the external solvency of nations
Bleaney, Michael F.; Tian, Mo - 2014
Global current account imbalances were a major subject of concern in the years before the recent financial crisis. It is shown that the expected (negative) equilibrium relationship between net foreign assets and the trade balance that had held in the previous twenty years appeared to break down...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010382090
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Net foreign assets, real exchange rates and net exports revisited
Bleaney, Michael F.; Tian, Mo - 2013
Theory suggests a significant positive relationship in long-run equilibrium between net foreign assets (NFA) as a proportion of GDP and real exchange rates. Empirical tests have ignored two issues: the large variation in cross-country trade/GDP ratios, which is likely to induce substantial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009792044
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Currency wars, not public debt, may create a financial meltdown : conference paper
Pope, Robin; Selten, Reinhard - 2013
In studies concluding that public debt may hamper GDP growth, the debt tipping effects are estimated as if there were a single global currency. This means that such studies ignore the likely biggest cause of changes in growth rates, namely damage from exchange rate liquidity shocks because we do...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010340537
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Point, interval and density forecasts of exchange rates with time-varying parameter models
Abbate, Angela; Marcellino, Massimiliano - 2016
We explore whether modelling parameter time variation improves the point, interval and density forecasts of nine major exchange rates vis-a-vis the US dollar over the period 1976-2015. We find that modelling parameter time variation is needed for an accurate calibration of forecast confidence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011489395