Showing 1 - 10 of 986
This paper analyses mutual causalities between crude oil price and euro / US dollar exchange rate. Instead of focusing on long-run macroeconomic linkages like the bulk of the relevant literature takes a financial markets perspective using daily data. The fast-running simultaneousimpacts are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003727689
Models based on economic theory have serious problems at forecasting exchange rates better than simple univariate driftless random walk models, especially at short horizons. Multivariate time series models suffer from the same problem. In this paper, we propose to forecast exchange rates with a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003765975
Studying all possible pairs of eleven major currencies and eleven portfolios in 1976-2008 we show that, when there is no leverage, carry trade is significantly profitable for most currency pairs and portfolios. Positive returns do not diminish in time providing a strong case against the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003774170
Over the recent period, many emerging-market economies and commodity-exporting nations have experienced unprecedented growth and accumulated substantial amounts of foreign exchange reserves. The management of these foreign reserves has led to the emergence of important financial actors:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003775786
Money is used as a store of value, a medium of exchange and a unit of account. Most recent analyses of currency choice in an international setting have focused on the denomination of reserves - the store of value role. However, public data are only aggregate and exclude several countries. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003776323
This paper sheds new light on a long-standing puzzle in the international finance literature, namely, that exchange rate expectations appear inaccurate and even irrational. We find for a comprehensive dataset that individual forecasters' performance is skill-based. 'Superior' forecasters show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003832110
Using count-data techniques, this paper studies the determinants of currency choice in the issuance of foreign-currency-denominated bonds. In particular, we investigate whether bond issuers choose their issuance currency in order to exploit the borrowing-cost savings associated with deviations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003794028
Our goal in this project is to gain a better empirical understanding of the international financial implications of currency movements. To this end, we construct a database of international currency exposures for a large panel of countries over 1990-2004. We show that trade-weighted exchange...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003794424
The financial crisis of 2007-2008 had major implications for the foreign exchange market. We review events and implications for exchange rates, volatility, returns to currency investing, and transaction costs. This blow-by-blowʺ narrative is intended to be a resource for researchers seeking a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003861767
The prior paper in this sequel, Pope (2009) introduced the concept of a nominalist heuristic, defined as a focus on prominent numbers, indices or ratios. In this paper the concept is used to show three things in how scientists and practitioners analyse and evaluate to decide (conclude). First,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003867227