This paper provides a detailed description of recent research to re-estimate and re-specify the international trade volume and price equations that are used in the OECD Economics Department to analyse international trade developments. New panel data estimates of the factors affecting export...

Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This paper aims to quantify the role of weak economic growth and changes in its decomposition in accounting for the slowdown in trade using a reduced form and a structural...

This paper talks about the usage of Rules of Origin (RoO) as protectionist apparatuses in different regional trade areas, as the North American Free Trade Area, the African Growth and Opportunity Act and the South African Development Community, and the usage of RoO as trade-diverting tools. In...

An essential element of the work of the Fund is to monitor and forecast international trade. This paper uses SWIFT messages on letters of credit, together with crude oil prices and new export orders of manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), to improve the short-term forecast of...

The geography and composition of international trade are changing fast. We link a macroeconomic growth model and sectoral CGE framework in order to project the world economy forward to the year 2035 and assess to what extent current trends in trade are expected to continue. Constructing fully...

Constructing fully traceable scenarios based on assumptions grounded in the literature, we are also able to isolate the relative impact of key economic drivers. We find that the stakes for developing countries are particularly high: The emergence of new players in the world economy,...

Over the past decade, climate variabilities have emerged as shaping the dynamics of international trade. The adverse externalities posed by climate change require a corresponding improvement in the production of food, trade and the adoption of abundant renewable energy resources. Our study...

Honey, this relatively homogenous, hard to trace product, characterised by considerable international price differences, and often regulated by high tariff barriers, lends itself to economically motivated product adulteration. The adulteration of honey can undermine confidence in products as...

Our contribution uses trade in value added statistics to assess the causes of the recent world trade slowdown. We conclude that world trade elasticity has fallen due to a combination of regional and cyclical changes during the economic crisis. A cyclical factor is the lower cumulative trade...

Global trade growth over the past few years has appeared extraordinarily weak, even in relation to weak global GDP growth. This paper shows that the apparent breakdown in the relationship between global trade and global GDP growth is largely explained by two factors: an inappropriate measurement...