Policymakers fear the potentially destabilizing impact of fickle global investors on emerging markets. Euro area investors are significant participants in emerging bond markets and exhibit volatile flows, but their fickleness does not result in indiscriminate periods of surge and flight....

We analyze how global and local factors affect portfolio allocation by euro area investors in emerging markets at the bond-level. First, cross-sectional analysis reveals a strong preference for home (Euro) currency bonds. Second, panel regressions, whether at the bond or aggregate flows level,...

This study investigates the connectedness between Bitcoin and fiat currencies in two groups of countries: the developed G7 and the emerging BRICS. The methodology adopts the regular (R)-vine copula and compares it with two benchmark models: the multivariate t copula and the dynamic conditional...

Using a parametric portfolio optimization approach, I show how international momentum strategies can be significantly improved by decomposing global momentum returns. The parametrization models the optimal portfolio weights as a function of the decomposed components and overweights equity...

We develop a novel method to dynamically hedge foreign exchange exposure in international equity and bond portfolios. The method exploits the time-series predictability of currency returns, which we show emerges from exploiting a forecastable component in global factor returns. The hedging...

We establish the out-of-sample predictability of monthly exchange rate changes via machine learning techniques based on 70 predictors capturing country characteristics, global variables, and their interactions. To guard against overfitting, we use the elastic net to estimate a high-dimensional...

We test the role of funding-constrained investors across developed financial markets. We compile direct measures of the severity of funding frictions, or illiquidity, from deviations of government bond yields from a fitted yield curve. Using these illiquidity measures, we first show that higher...

Using a measure of global political risk, relative to the U.S., that captures unexpected political conditions, we show that political risk is priced in the cross section of currency momentum and contains information beyond other risk factors. Our results are robust after controlling for...

We explain the currency carry trade performance using an asset pricing model in which factor loadings are regime-dependent rather than constant. Empirical results show that a typical carry trade strategy has much higher exposure to the stock market and is mean-reverting in regimes of high FX...

We explain the currency carry trade performance using an asset pricing model in which factor loadings are regime-dependent rather than constant. Empirical results show that a typical carry trade strategy has much higher exposure to the stock market and is mean-reverting in regimes of high FX...