We present a gravity model that accounts for multilateral resistance, firm heterogeneity and country-selection into trade, while accommodating asymmetries in trade flows. A new equation for the proportion of exporting firms takes a gravity form, such that the extensive margin is also affected by...

Abstract: This paper applies a two stage estimation procedure that accounts for a sample-selection bias and firm-level heterogeneity in order to estimate a gravity model of exports at industry level of aggregation for 119 exporting countries and 142 importing countries in 2002-2006. It further...

In early 2020, the disease Covid-19 caused a drastic lockdown of the Chinese economy. We use a quantitative trade model with input-output linkages to gauge the effects of this adverse supply shock in China on the global economy through international trade and global value chains (GVCs). We find...

The General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) under the WTO is a newly-born and the first ever multilateral agreement on trade in services. Despite of potential development and welfare prospects abound in the services sector, only moderate liberalization has been achieved under the GATS and...

Neither of the major negotiations underway in the Asia-Pacific region, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, includes both China and the United States. By failing to connect these economies, these agreements would leave much of the economic and...

There are countries that do not fall under the prevailing definitions of developed and developing country that are employed by the World Trade Organization (WTO). The WTO fails to take into account the special circumstances and needs of these countries. While such special circumstances and needs...

We construct a new database which covers production and trade in 136 primary commodities and 24 manufacturing and service sectors for 145 countries. Using this new more granular data, we estimate spillover effects from plausible trade fragmentation scenarios in a new multi-country, multi-sector,...

Recent disruptions to global value chains (GVCs) have raised an important question: Can decoupling from GVCs increase a country’s welfare by reducing its exposure to foreign supply shocks? We use a quantitative trade model to simulate GVCs decoupling, defined as increased barriers to global...

This paper assesses whether the sensitivity of bilateral trade volumes to various trade cost factors is constant or varies across countries. It utilizes a random coeffcients model and analyses a cross-sectional sample of bilateral trade data for 96 countries in 2005. We expect the elasticity of...