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Business cycles in emerging markets : the role of liability dollarization and valuation effects
Notz, Stefan; Rosenkranz, Peter - 2014
Understanding differences in business cycle phenomena between Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) and industrialized countries has been at the center of recent research on macroeconomic fluctuations. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the importance of certain credit market imperfections...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010402774
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Business Cycles in Emerging Markets : The Role of Liability Dollarization and Valuation Effects
Notz, Stefan - 2014
Understanding differences in business cycle phenomena between Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) and industrialized countries has been at the center of recent research on macroeconomic fluctuations. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the importance of certain credit market imperfections...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013051942
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The politics of fiscal austerity : democracies and hard choices
Posner, Paul L.; Sommerfeld, Matthew - In: OECD journal on budgeting (2013) 1, pp. 141-174
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010243658
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Oil price movements and the global economy : a model-based assessment
Elekdaǧ, Selim Ali; Lalonde, René; Laxton, Douglas; … - 2007
We develop a five-region version (Canada, an oil exporter, the United States, emerging Asia and Japan plus the euro area) of the Global Economy Model (GEM) encompassing production and trade of crude oil, and use it to study the international transmission mechanism of shocks that drive oil...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003472886
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Would Protectionism Defuse Global Imbalances and Spur Economic Activity? A Scenario Analysis
Faruqee, Hamid - 2006
In the evolving analysis of global imbalances, the possibility that countries will resort to increased protectionism is often mentioned but rarely analyzed. This paper attempts to fill that gap, examining the macroeconomic implications of a shift to protectionist policies through the lens of a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012732497
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A Model of Structural Transformation and Demographic Transition in China and Dynamics of World Interest Rate
Han, Gaofeng - 2021
This paper studies the theoretical implications of structural transformation and demographic transition in Mainland China for its domestic economy and the world interest rates. Our proposed model predicts that the transition from a manufacturing-oriented economy to a service-oriented economy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013218649
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External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies : How High Liquidity Can Offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion
Bussière, Matthieu - 2021
This paper investigates the factors behind the 1994 and 1997 crises and whether these can explain the 1998 crisis. The study reveals that: (i) variables used in an Early Warning System model developed by IMF staff scored well in predicting the 1998 crisis out-of-sample; (ii) all three crisis...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013212110
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Determinants of Pre-Pandemic Demand for the IMF's Concessional Financing
Hills, Timothy; Nguyen, Huy Le; Sab, Randa - 2021
This study focuses on identifying the main factors that influenced country-specific and aggregate demand for IMF concessional financing between 1986 and 2018 and makes within-period and out-of-period forecasts. We find that the external debt level, inflation, and real effective exchange rate are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013243069
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Channels for Narrowing the US Current Account Deficit and Implications for Other Economies
Brook, Anne-Marie - 2004
US current account deficit could occur. The shocks considered include dollar depreciation, fiscal consolidation, and an … to materially reduce the US external deficit. In part, this is because second-round effects, including domestic policy … deficit involves risks to growth in the rest of the world, particularly in Japan where the authorities have limited room to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012444349
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Modeling the Imf's Statistical Discrepancy in the Global Current Account
Marquez, Jaime; Workman, Lisa - 2001
This paper offers a framework for judging when the discrepancy embodied in current-account forecasts is large. The first step in implementing this framework involves developing an econometric model explaining the components of the aggregate discrepancy, estimating the associated parameters, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014146960