We examine the relative ability of simple inflation targeting (IT) and price level targeting (PLT) monetary policy rules to minimize both inflation variability and business cycle fluctuations in Canada for shocks that have important consequences for global commodity prices. We find that...

The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast to point forecasts), quantify macrofinancial risks in terms of growth, and monitor...

As the Indonesian economy is becoming progressively more integrated with the global economy, the impact of global economic shocks on the domestic economy is becoming more pronounced. Capital inflows, which trigger excessive liquidity and exacerbate the risk of a sudden reversal, pose a serious...

The Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM) is a group of models developed by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy analysis. A typical module of FSGM is a multi-region, forward-looking semi-structural global model consisting of 24 regions. Using the three core modules focused on...

We argue that strong globalization forces have been an important determinant of globalreal interest rates over the last five decades, as they have been key drivers of changes inthe natural real interest rate-i.e. the interest rate consistent with output at its potentialand constant inflation. An...

This paper will discuss how the Financial Crisis of 2008 has thrown neoliberalism into a deep legitimation crisis. Over the past four decades the neoliberal ethic of Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher has permeated American life both public and private. The principles of the laissez faire...

The present paper uses survey data on expected consumer price developments to analyse the role of inflation expectations in the inflation process. The survey measures of price expectations are derived from the European Commission's Consumer Survey and from the surveys of professional experts...

An extensive empirical literature explores why exchange rate pass-through to prices varies across countries, with limited analysis of why pass-through can also vary meaningfully over time. We develop a methodology to better understand pass-through for a diverse sample of economies by explicitly...

Greater international economic interconnectedness over recent decades has been changing inflation dynamics. This paper presents evidence that the expansion of global value chains (GVCs), ie cross-border trade in intermediate goods and services, is an important channel through which global...

This paper studies the role of global factors in causing common movements in consumer price inflation, with particular focus on the food, housing and energy sub-indices. It uses a comprehensive dataset of 223 countries and territories collected from national and international sources. Global...