The study examines the predictability of 48 sovereign bond markets based on a strategy of 27,000 technical trading rules. These rules represent four popular trading rule classes, they are: moving average, filtering, support and resistance, and channel breakout rules, with numerous variants in...

Using a news-based gauge of geopolitical risk, we study its role for asset pricing in global emerging markets. We find that changes in risk positively predict future stock returns. The countries with the highest increase in geopolitical uncertainty outperform their counterparts with the lowest...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

The paper examines the impact of Russia-Ukraine war news on Indian crude oil spot and futures markets. The event study Methodology is employed to examine the abnormal returns in crude oil spot and futures markets on the Russia-Ukraine War announcement date. For robustness of results, traditional...

The purpose of this study is to assess the diversification benefits resulting from international asset allocation. In this study, we examine Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) in its international context (ICAPM) using the monthly equity returns for 26 countries (18 developed and 8 emerging...

In this paper, we document that realized variation measures constructed from high-frequency returns reveal a large degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which forecasting errors in realized volatility are substantive. Even...

We study the well-known multiplicative Lognormal cascade process in which the multiplication of Gaussian and Lognormally distributed random variables yields time series with intermittent bursts of activity. Due to the non-stationarity of this process and the combinatorial nature of such a...

This paper investigates how technical trading systems exploit the momentum and reversal effects in the S&P 500 spot and futures market. The former is exploited by trend-following models, while the latter by contrarian models. In total, the performance of 2580 widely used models is analyzed. When...

Firm size is an essential factor in examining the relation between returns and idiosyncratic volatilities. This paper documents that, when the idiosyncratic volatility is specified by firm size, the size-portfolio idiosyncratic volatility is statistically significant in explaining the future...