The economic downturn which had begun in the rich countries of the North is hurting the millions of innocent people of the developing South. While a large section of economist believe that the financial crisis that had began in America's sub-prime mortgage market, later snow balled into a global...

Today, the world economy is at the brink of a major recession at zero lower bound. The recession has been fomented by the underconsumption induced by (i) the increasing income inequality, which is inherent in the neoliberal policymaking followed the last third of a century, and (ii) the...

Many commentators have argued that if the Federal Reserve had followed a stricter monetary policy earlier this decade when the housing bubble was forming, and if Congress had not deregulated banking but had imposed tighter financial standards, the housing boom and bust - and the subsequent...

This paper investigates the sources of macrofinancial fluctuations and turbulence within the framework of an approximate linear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the world economy, augmented with structural shocks exhibiting potentially asymmetric generalized autoregressive...

We propose a theory of low-frequency movements in unemployment based on downward real wage rigidities. The theory generates two main predictions: long-run unemployment increases with (i) a fall in long-run productivity growth and (ii) a rise in the variance of productivity growth. Evidence based...

Long-term real interest rates across the world have fallen by about 450 basis points over the past 30 years. The co-movement in rates across both advanced and emerging economies suggests a common driver: the global neutral real rate may have fallen. In this paper we attempt to identify which...

I) House prices rose strongly in advanced economies during the pandemic, breaking with typical post-recession patterns. These developments support domestic demand in the short term but carry risks to the outlook if they reverse. II) Rapid economic recovery, fiscal support and high saving rates...

The currencies of nations, in their utility as a medium of exchange and store of value, behave variously according to the integrated dynamics of free enterprise, the central bank and government policy. As such, foreign exchange rates fluctuate constantly with consequences for the growth of...

Central banks hold gold reserves that are designed to build confidence in fiat currency. This confidence is undermined if the price of gold falls significantly or rises significantly. Central banks thus have an incentive to manage the price of gold. Such management is evident in fixed gold...

This paper documents the theoretical structure and empirical properties of the latestversion of the Global Macrofinancial Model (GFM). This dynamic stochastic generalequilibrium model of the world economy, disaggregated into forty national economies,was developed to support multilaterally...