An essential element of the work of the Fund is to monitor and forecast international trade. This paper uses SWIFT messages on letters of credit, together with crude oil prices and new export orders of manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), to improve the short-term forecast of...

Energy security is a burning issue in a world where 1.4 billion people still have no access to electricity. This pioneering book is about finding solutions for energy security through the international trading system. Focusing mainly on the European Union (EU) as a case study, this holistic and...

Motivated by the European Union's debate on sanctioning crude oil imports from Russia, we estimate the elasticity of substitution between different crude oil types. Using European data on country-level crude oil imports by field of origin, we argue that crude oil is not a homogenous good and...

Rising energy prices might lead to adjustments along the supply chain and make firms outsource energy-intensive processes. This could lead to carbon leakage. I provide empirical evidence whether energy price-induced offshoring occurs using firm-level data on energy use, imports, and material...

Drivers of environmental quality have recently been identified in a large body of literature. However, the ecological effects of both regimes of monetary policy remain under-explored so far. Moreover, previous studies use limited samples and econometric approaches. Climate change from the...

When natural gas prices are subject to periodic decoupling from oil prices, for instance due to peak-load pricing, conventional linear models of price dynamics such as the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) can lead to erroneous inferences about cointegration relationships, price adjustments...

In this paper we investigate the time-varying relationship between oil and natural gas in the UK. We develop a model where relative prices can move between pricing-regimes; markets switch between being decoupled and integrated. Our model endogenously accounts for periods where oil and natural...

A model of the global gas market is presented which in its basic version optimises the future development of production, transport and storage capacities as well as the actual gas ows around the world assuming perfect competition. Besides the transport of natural gas via pipelines also the...

This paper discusses the rising profile of natural gas in global energy, factors constraining its further development, the gas contracting process, and the absence of a global market, which is analyzed in the context of the economic rent in the gas price and the opaque nature of gas contracts. A...