This paper examines the role of inventories in refiners' gasoline production and develops a structural model of the relationship between crude oil prices and inventories. Using data on inventories and prices of oil futures, I show that convenience yields decrease at a diminishing rate as...

Motivated by the European Union's debate on sanctioning crude oil imports from Russia, we estimate the elasticity of substitution between different crude oil types. Using European data on country-level crude oil imports by field of origin, we argue that crude oil is not a homogenous good and...

This paper proposes a partial equilibrium model to describe the global crude oil market. Pricing on the global crude oil market is strongly influenced by price indices such as WTI (USA) and Brent (Northwest Europe). Adapting an approach for pool-based electricity markets, the model captures the...

A model for world crude oil and natural gas markets is estimated. It confirms low price and high income elasticities of demand for both crude oil and natural gas, which explains the market power of oil producers and price volatility following shocks. The paper establishes a relationship between...

Coal is at the core of the debate about climate change mitigation policies, yet the internationalmarket for it is not well represented in most energy models. This paper presents the COALMODframework which is a model of the international steam coal market that can be readily used toexplore...

For more than 30 years, the world's main indices for oil prices – WTI in the US and Brent in Europe – have moved in sync. This changed dramatically in 2011, when WTI started trading at a considerable discount to Brent for almost five years. This disparity violated the “law of one price”...

An estimate is made of the specific risk to the fossil fuel sector from wind and solar generation and from electric vehicles. The systemic risk to investment portfolios from climate change is then analysed

This paper develops earlier work on the impairment to the value of investment portfolios from global warming later this century. The growth in renewables and electric vehicles may be enough to strand fossil fuel assets from the late 2020s onwards, but will not alone bring emissions down fast...

This paper discusses the rising profile of natural gas in global energy, factors constraining its further development, the gas contracting process, and the absence of a global market, which is analyzed in the context of the economic rent in the gas price and the opaque nature of gas contracts. A...