Global current account imbalances were a major subject of concern in the years before the recent financial crisis. It is shown that the expected (negative) equilibrium relationship between net foreign assets and the trade balance that had held in the previous twenty years appeared to break down...

Theory suggests a significant positive relationship in long-run equilibrium between net foreign assets (NFA) as a proportion of GDP and real exchange rates. Empirical tests have ignored two issues: the large variation in cross-country trade/GDP ratios, which is likely to induce substantial...

Many currencies, especially those of countries with negative net foreign assets, tend to depreciate during times of financial turbulence. Using a panel of 26 currencies over the period 1/1997 - 6/2016, I show that the composition of net foreign assets matter for the exchange rate sensitivity to...

Rising current account and merchandise trade imbalances marked the years before the global financial and economic crisis. These imbalances either contributed to or precipitated the crisis and to the extent that they create systemic risks, it is desirable that they be reduced. There are many...

This paper investigates the determinants of the trade balance using panel data for 32 industrialized and emerging economies for the period 1990?2007. The results based on fixed effects models and linear mixed models allowing for random slope coefficients, show that the trade balance as a...

This study analyzes the dynamics between real effective exchange rates and current account patterns from a novel perspective. We start by dissecting long-run and time-varying short-run dynamics between both variables. Following this, we extend our framework by including interest rates into our...

This paper proposes a new risk factor based on a multi-country's trading imbalance network to explain foreign exchange rate fluctuations and currency risk premia associated with a currency carry trade strategy. We build a directed in-degree trading network of global countries linked by their...

Using a dataset of 101 countries over the 1960–2011 period, we examine the relationship between the real effective exchange rate (REER), on the one hand, and trade openness, trade balance, the terms of trade, factor productivity, and exchange rate regime, on the other one. We use new...

This paper analyzes the role of uncertainty on both exchange rate expectations and forecast errors of professionals for four major currencies based on survey data provided by FX4casts. We consider economic policy, macroeconomic, and financial uncertainty as well as disagreement among CPI...