There has been considerable research into dynamic global tactical asset allocation (GTAA) strategies driven by simple measures of Valuation and Momentum applied to a baseline balanced portfolio of equities and fixed income (see Blitz and van Vliet 2008, Wang and Kochard 2011, Gnedenko and Yelnik...

We compare several representative sophisticated model averaging and variable selection techniques of forecasting stock returns. When estimated traditionally, our results confirm that the simple combination of individual predictors is superior. However, sophisticated models improve dramatically...

As these lines are being written (April 2018), the The U.S. stock market is again in turmoil. After a two-year bull run in which share prices soared by nearly 50 per cent, the market is suddenly dropping. Since the beginning of 2018, it lost nearly 10 per cent of its value, threatening investors...

Using a simple sign test, we report new empirical evidence, taken from both the US and the German stock markets, showing that trading behavior substantially changed around Black Monday in 1987. It turned out that before Black Monday investors behaved more as in the momentum strategy; and after...

Behavioral finance argues that some properties of asset prices are most reasonably considered as deviations from fundamental value and they are caused by the presence of traders who are not fully rational hence called noise traders. Noise trader approach assumes that sentiment traders exert...

This paper explores the opportunities of momentum and contrarian profits on the Bucharest Stock Exchange during quiet and turbulent times. In our investigation we employ daily values of the main indexes from the Bucharest Stock Exchange for two periods of time. During the first period, from...

Investor sentiment and attention are often linked to the same non-economic events making it difficult to understand why and how asset prices are affected. We disentangle these two potential drivers of investment behaviour by analysing a new dataset of medals for major participating countries and...

Using a simple sign test, we report new empirical evidence, taken from both the US and the German stock markets, showing that trading behavior substantially changed around Black Monday in 1987. It turned out that before Black Monday investors behaved more as in the momentum strategy; and after...

We investigate herding in ten equity markets during the COVID-19 pandemic using a methodology that considers movements in assets due to changes in fundamentals. We find heterogeneous patterns in herding across the ten countries and little evidence of herding during the pandemic. The initial...

This paper describes a forecasting exercise of close-to-open returns on major global stock indices, based on price patterns from foreign markets that have become available overnight. As the close-to-open gap is a scalar response variable to a functional variable, it is natural to focus on...