We construct investor sentiment indices for six major stock markets and decompose them into one global and six local indices. In a validation test, we find that relative sentiment is correlated with the relative prices of dual-listed companies. Global sentiment is a contrarian predictor of...

We examine the F score in global emerging markets and show there is a meaningful premium attached to high F score stocks which is unrelated to the size, value and momentum premiums. It is larger for high value stocks, moderately higher for high momentum stocks and unrelated to stock size. This...

There has been considerable research into dynamic global tactical asset allocation (GTAA) strategies driven by simple measures of Valuation and Momentum applied to a baseline balanced portfolio of equities and fixed income (see Blitz and van Vliet 2008, Wang and Kochard 2011, Gnedenko and Yelnik...

Black-Litterman model provides a reasonable platform to portfolio optimization and asset allocation by presenting an equilibrium state of the markets and only deviating from that equilibrium state with forward-looking strategic views. Index of Economic Freedom (IEF) can be used as a handy tool...

The study examines the predictability of 48 sovereign bond markets based on a strategy of 27,000 technical trading rules. These rules represent four popular trading rule classes, they are: moving average, filtering, support and resistance, and channel breakout rules, with numerous variants in...

This paper proposes a two-state predictive regression model and shows that stock market 12-month return (TMR), the time-series momentum predictor of Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen (2012), forecasts the aggregate stock market negatively in good times and positively in bad times. The out-of-sample...

Momentum is one of the largest and most pervasive market anomalies. However, despite a high mean and Sharpe ratio, momentum suffers from large negative skewness that comes from momentum crash periods. These crashes occur in times of both market stress and market rebound and thus variables that...

This study provides an overview of the model evolution and research trends in the field of financial and risk modelling by applying a bibliometric approach from 2008–2019 and an overall citation network analysis. We present a content analysis of contributing authors, countries, journals, main...

We examine insider trades around the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Insiders purchased shares in record numbers after the stock market decline that began in late February 2020. We find that insider purchases were more pronounced for larger firms, value firms, firms with high levels of leverage...

This paper compares the forecasting and hedging performance of 11 CAPM beta estimators across 54 international stock markets. The Welch (2022) age-decayed slope-winsorized beta estimator ranks first in predicting future realized OLS betas in 46 markets and is always within the top 3 performers....