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Dynamic prediction pools : an investigation of financial frictions and forecasting performance

Del Negro, Marco; Hasegawa, Raiden B.; Schorfheide, Frank - 2014

pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010414783

New forecasting methods for an old problem : predicting 147 years of systemic financial crises

Plessis, Emile du; Fritsche, Ulrich - 2022

forecasting solutions. In this context, the paper develops new forecasting methods for an old problem by employing 13 machine …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362692

Low Inflation Bends the Phillips Curve Around the World : Extended Results

Forbes, Kristin J.; Gagnon, Joseph; Collins, Christopher G - 2021

This paper revises and extends PIIE Working Paper 20-6. It continues to find strong support for a Phillips curve that becomes nonlinear when inflation is “low”—which our baseline model defines as less than 3 percent. The nonlinear curve is steep when output is above potential (slack is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013211362

Inflation dynamics : dead, dormant, or determined abroad?

Forbes, Kristin - 2019

Inflation dynamics have been difficult to explain over the last decade. This paper explores if a more comprehensive treatment of globalization can help. CPI inflation has become more synchronized around the world since the 2008 crisis, but core and wage inflation have become less synchronized....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012225141

Low inflation bends the Phillips Curve around the world

Forbes, Kristin; Gagnon, Joseph E.; Collins, Christopher G. - 2020

This paper models inflation by combining the multi-country framework of one of its authors (Forbes) with the nonlinear specification proposed by the other two (Gagnon and Collins). The results find strong support for a Phillips curve that becomes nonlinear when inflation is low, in which case...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012225166

The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy

Gerberding, Christina - 2001

expectations in the inflation process. The survey measures of price expectations are derived from the European Commission … estimates of the New Keynesian inflation model presented here underscore the importance of inflation expectations for the short … expectations formation indicates that the expectations of the households and experts surveyed are strongly guided by earlier …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011419361

Oil price pass-through into inflation in Spain at national and regional level

Topan, Ligia; Castro, César; Jerez, Miguel; Barge Gil, … - In: SERIEs : Journal of the Spanish Economic Association 11 (2020) 4, pp. 561-583

Oil price showed sharp fluctuations in recent years which revived the interest in its effect on inflation. In this paper, we discuss the relationship between oil price and inflation in Spain, at national and regional levels, and making the distinction between energy and non-energy inflation. To...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012389041