This paper quantitatively compares the intrinsic features of the daily USD-GBP exchange rates in two different periods, the 1920s and the 2010s, under the same freely floating exchange rate system. Even though the foreign exchange markets in the 1920s seem to be much less organized and developed...

This study investigates changes in the relationship between oil prices and the US economy from a long-term perspective. Although neither of the two series (oil price and GDP growth rates) presents structural breaks in mean, we identify different volatility periods in both of them, separately....

We show that the oil market has become closer to "one great pool," in the sense that price differentials between crude oils of different qualities have generally become smaller over time. We document, in particular, that many of these quality-related differentials experienced a major structural...

In this paper we introduce a new nonlinear Markov-STAR model to capture both the markov switching and smooth transition dynamics for real exchange rates. The Markov switching part captures the effect of time variations of the equilibrium exchange rates, while the smooth transition part models...

On global scale, central banks' holdings of foreign reserves have escalated sharply in recent years. World international reserves holdings have risen significantly from US$1.2 trillion in 1995 to nearly US$10.0 trillion in June 2011. Dominant among these reserves are concentrated in the hands of...

We generalize the portfolio shifts model advanced by Evans and Lyons (2002a; b), and develop the dynamic asymmetric portfolio shifts (DAPS) model by explicitly allowing for possible market under- and overreactions and for asymmetric pricing impacts of order flows. Using the Reuters D2000-1 daily...

We analyse the pattern of daily Euro - US Dollar exchange rates from the birth of Euro in January 1999 to December 2011. We document that also this series is I(1), as is usual for nominal bilateral exchange rates. However, we find evidence of the presence of day effects – even if they play a...