This paper considers the problem of forecasting real and financial macroeconomic variables across a large number of countries in the global economy. To this end, a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model previously estimated over the 1979:Q1–2003:Q4 period by Dees, de Mauro, Pesaran, and...

We investigate the role of crude oil spot and futures prices in the process of price discovery by using a cost-of-carry model with an endogenous convenience yield and daily data over the period from January 1990 to December 2008. We provide evidence that futures markets play a more important...

We investigate the role of crude oil spot and futures prices in the process of price discovery by using a cost-of-carry model with an endogenous convenience yield and daily data over the period from January 1990 to December 2008. We provide evidence that futures markets play a more important...

The financial crisis of 2007-2009 has begun in July 2007 when a loss of confidence by investors in the value of securitized mortgages in the United States resulted in a liquidity crisis. World stock markets peaked in October 2007 and then entered a period of high volatility which culminated with...

The ex-ante forecast of the SP500 index discussed in Fantazzini (2010a), covering the time sample 14/04/2009-09/10/2010, and originally submitted to the Economics Bulletin on the 15/05/2009 is analyzed. It is found that the realized values of the SP500 index trailed the forecasted values quite...

This study compares the performance of the widely used risk measure Value-at-Risk (VaR) across a large sample of developed and emerging countries. The performance of the VaR is assessed by both unconditional and conditional tests of Kupiec and Christoffersen, respectively, as well as the...

This paper provides new evidence on the stochastic behaviour of the EPU (Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index constructed by Baker et al. (2016) in six of the biggest economies (Canada, France, Japan, US, Ireland, and Sweden) over the period from January 1985 to October 2019. In particular,...

The ability of Google Trends data to forecast the number of new daily cases and deaths of COVID-19 is examined using a dataset of 158 countries. The analysis includes the computations of lag correlations between confirmed cases and Google data, Granger causality tests, and an out-of-sample...

In this study we analyse the evolution of interdependence and relative influence of major international stock markets in the three main geographical regions of USA, Europe and Asia around the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007. Using the framework of the Foreign Information Transmission (FIT)...