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This paper investigates a perception in the political debates as to what extent poor countries are affected by price movements in the global commodity markets. To test this perception, we use the case of India to establish in a standard SVAR model that global food prices influence aggregate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011336943
useful information about variables such as commodity prices which matter for aggregate demand and thus inflation. Given this …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010208787
and food price shocks on a given set of countries. Secondly, we assess the importance of inflation linkages among … exist among regions. In addition, a considerable part of the observed headline inflation rises is attributable to foreign …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013159237
States and the euro area. For many of the basic items in the basket of goods used to estimate inflation, the effects of oil … through to core inflation (or rather to inflation excluding food and energy products) by means of macroeconomic factors; while …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012941998
Global developments play an important role in domestic inflation rates. Previous literature has found that a … substantial amount of the variation in a large set of national inflation rates can be explained by a single global factor. However …, inflation volatility has been typically neglected, while it is clearly relevant both from a policy point of view and for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012919564
We develop a model to empirically study the influence of global factors in driving trend inflation and the inflation … gap. We apply our model to five established inflation targeters and a group of heterogeneous Asian economies. Our results … suggest that while global factors can have a sizeable influence on the inflation gap, they play only a marginal role in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012929614
components in international inflation rates. This paper characterizes such links in international inflation rates with a dynamic … latent factor model that decomposes 64 national inflation rates into world, regional, and idiosyncratic components. The world … and regional components account for 35% and 16%, respectively, of annual inflation variability on average across countries …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012714097
Since 2000 U.S. inflation has remained both below target and silent to domestic slack and monetary interventions. A … inflation. The trend analysis shows that, starting from the '90s, despite very well-anchored expectations, slow-moving imported … "cost-push" factors induced deflationary pressure keeping trend inflation below target. The cycle block provides evidence in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012795587
(notably residential property) and inflation; and it looks at the role of public debt for consumer price developments. On the … basis of a VAR analysis, the study finds that i) global money demand shocks affect global inflation and also global … commodity prices, which in turn impact on inflation; global asset/property price dynamics appear to respond to financing cost …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315888
There is no consensus over the importance of "global forces" on inflation. This study explores the role of structural … breaks in the inflation process, and their timing, whether it is common across countries, and the extent to which "global … forces" are relevant. Three conclusions stand out. Global inflation impacts inflation in both AE and EME, but the impact is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012269197