The Great Financial Crisis of 2007-09 confirmed the vital importance of advancing our understanding of macrofinancial linkages, the two-way interactions between the real economy and the financial sector. The crisis was a bitter reminder of how sharp fluctuations in asset prices, credit and...

Economic growth is ardently emphasized as a requisite underpinning not only for improving individual income, the standard of living, and a society's infrastructure, but also to attain equitable distribution of necessities, critical resources, and public goods such as education, healthcare, and...

We extract expectations about future economic growth from firms' cross-border merger and acquisition (M&A) announcements, and show they predict changes in economic growth rates and foreign exchange rate returns. The predictability is driven by the cross-border M&A announcements of cyclical...

We construct a measure of the short-term world interest rate using principal component analysis. Drawing on real interest rate data for 18 OECD countries for the period 1985 - 2008, persistent deviations from the world interest rate that cannot be explained by movements in the real exchange rate...

The Great Financial Crisis of 2007-09 confirmed the vital importance of advancing our understanding of macrofinancial linkages, the two-way interactions between the real economy and the financial sector. The crisis was a bitter reminder of how sharp fluctuations in asset prices, credit and...

Tiny changes in the American monetary policy can have dramatic effects on the rest of the world because of dollar's double role of national and international currency. This is the Triffin dilemma. The paper shows how it works through three examples: price of commodities, dollarization, and the...

While the unfolding financial turmoil has involved new elements, more fundamental elements have remained the same. New elements include structured credit, the originate-to-distribute business model and the tri-party repurchase agreement. The recurrence of crises reflects a basic procyclicality...

Many commentators have argued that if the Federal Reserve had followed a stricter monetary policy earlier this decade when the housing bubble was forming, and if Congress had not deregulated banking but had imposed tighter financial standards, the housing boom and bust - and the subsequent...

Not necessarily. I provide evidence that advanced countries' equity premium and consumption growth differ significantly from those of emerging countries. I then estimate distinct disaster risk parameters for these two country groups. My Bayesian analysis demonstrates that in some aspects...