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The Taylor rule has become the dominant model for academic evaluation of out-of-sample exchange rate predictability. Two versions of the Taylor rule model are the Taylor rule fundamentals model, where the variables that enter the Taylor rule are used to forecast exchange rate changes, and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012904307
This essay argues that the Achilles heel of the international monetary and financial system is that it amplifies the "excess financial elasticity" of domestic policy regimes, ie it exacerbates their inability to prevent the build-up of financial imbalances, or outsize financial cycles, that lead...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013032507
Many commentators have argued that if the Federal Reserve had followed a stricter monetary policy earlier this decade when the housing bubble was forming, and if Congress had not deregulated banking but had imposed tighter financial standards, the housing boom and bust - and the subsequent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013155688
Global risk-off shocks can be highly destabilizing for financial markets and, absent an adequate policy response, may trigger severe recessions. Policy responses were more complex for developed economies with very low interest rates after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). We document, however,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012890990
Global risk-off shocks can be highly destabilising for financial markets and, absent an adequate policy response, may trigger severe recessions. In Caballero and Kamber (2019), we document that the unconventional policies adopted by the main central banks were effective in containing asset price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012870096
This paper documents two facts about countries with floating exchange rates where monetary policy controls inflation using a short-term interest rate. First, the current real exchange rate predicts future changes in the nominal exchange rate at horizons greater than two years both in sample and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014121933
.S. policies, and bank-specific heterogeneity influences the magnitudes of transmission. The effects are supportive of the … banks face matter; in particular, foreign currency funding and hedging considerations can be a key source of heterogeneity …. The forms of bank balance sheet heterogeneity that differentiate spillovers across banks are not uniform across countries …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011877813
.S. policies, and bank-specific heterogeneity influences the magnitudes of transmission. The effects are supportive of the … banks face matter; in particular, foreign currency funding and hedging considerations can be a key source of heterogeneity …. The forms of bank balance sheet heterogeneity that differentiate spillovers across banks are not uniform across countries …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012911041
Emerging markets (EMs) often respond to shocks by intervening in foreign exchange (FX) markets and thus preventing full exchange rate adjustment. This response can serve to dampen the effect of shocks and increase monetary policy space but may also incentivize economic participants to increase...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315118
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009422829