This paper assesses the impact of crude oil price movements on two macro variables — the gross domestic product (GDP …) growth rate and consumer price index inflation rate — in the developed economies of the United States and Japan, and an … world's three largest oil consumers. The main objective of this study is to see whether these economies are still reactive …

This paper examines the asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and oil price uncertainty (OPU) on … inflation by using a Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model, which is compared to a benchmark linear ARDL one. Using monthly data from the …, especially negative ones, have a stronger impact on inflation than OPU ones and capture some of the monetary policy uncertainty …

This paper assesses the impact of crude oil price movements on two macro variables - the gross domestic product (GDP …) growth rate and consumer price index inflation rate - in the developed economies of the United States and Japan, and an … world's three largest oil consumers. The main objective of this study is to see whether these economies are still reactive …

production volatility, significantly increases the responsiveness of oil prices to oil shocks. This implies a lower price … volatility. Also the impact of oil shocks on economic activity appears to be significantly stronger in uncertain times. -- oil …This paper evaluates whether macroeconomic uncertainty changes the impact of oil shocks on the oil price. Using a …

volatility to estimate the changing spillover of global oil shocks into the Maltese economy during the period that goes from … prices. The results evidence how Great Recession and COVID-19 pandemic are associated with higher inflation responsiveness …. Notwithstanding, the response of energy inflation gradually declines and, as a consequence, the medium-term pass-through from …

that the oil price passes through core inflation only via its effect on the whole economy. This pass-through is estimated …We estimate the oil price pass-through into consumer prices both in the US and in the euro area. In particular, we … disentangle the specific effect that an oil price change might have on each disaggregate price, from the effect on all prices that …

Recent energy and food price surges, in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have exacerbated inflation … pressuresthat are unusually high by the standards of the past two decades. High and rising inflation has prompted many emerging …. Inflation is expected to ease back towards targets over the medium-term as recent shocks unwind, but the 1970s experience is a …

link between oil shocks and the volatility of economic growth. A new measure of oil shocks is developed and shown to be … volatility to oil price changes. Uncertainty about future growth is considerably lower compared to a benchmark AR(1) model when …This paper shows that oil shocks primarily impact economic growth through the conditional variance of growth. Our …

We analyze the evolution and drivers of inflation during the pandemic and the likely trajectory of inflation in the … near-term using an event study of inflation around global recessions and a factor-augmented vector auto-regression (FAVAR …) model. We report three main results. First, the decline in global inflation during the 2020 global recession was the most …