We show that a model where investors learn about the persistence of oil-price movements accounts well for the fluctuations in oil-price futures since the late 1990s. Using a DSGE model, we then show that this learning process alters the impact of oil shocks, making it time-dependent and...

We show that a model where investors learn about the persistence of oil-price movements accounts well for the fluctuations in oil-price futures since the late 1990s. Using a DSGE model, we then show that this learning process alters the impact of oil shocks, making it time-dependent and...

This paper characterizes the business cycle as a recurring Markov chain for a broad set of developed and developing countries. The objective is to understand differences in cyclical phenomena across a broad range of countries based on the behavior of two key economic times series - industrial...

The Job Guarantee (Mosler 1997-8, Mitchell and Muysken 2008, Wray 1998; hereafter, JG) is a policy proposal designed as an alternative to the neoclassical natural rate of unemployment or non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU). Whereas that approach presumes that some positive...

We develop a novel multinomial logistic model to detect and forecast concurrent recessions across multi-countries. The key advantage of our proposed framework is that we can detect recessions across countries using the additional informational content from the cross-country panel feature of the...

In the context of globalization, through a growing process of market liberalization, advanced technology and economic trading bloc, national stock markets have become more interdependent, which limits the international portfolio diversification opportunities. This paper investigates the degree...

This paper investigates the time-varying impacts of international macroeconomic uncertainty shocks. We use a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) specification with drifting coefficients and factor stochastic volatility in the errors to model six economies jointly. The measure of uncertainty is...

This paper proposes a novel approach to uncover the linkages of the housing market and macroeconomy for fifteen OECD countries. One of the limitations of conventional approach is that it does not distinguish the time domain from the frequency domain. However, econometric and economic rationale...