A Monte Carlo (MC) experiment is conducted to study the forecasting performance of a variety of volatility models under … Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity models ((FI)GARCH), the Stochastic Volatility model (SV) and the Markov … different characterizations of the latent volatility process: specifications which incorporate short/long memory, autoregressive …

This paper analyzes conditional threshold effects of stock market volatility on crude oil market volatility. We use the … terms of predictive ability. CoTAR often outperforms TAR when predicting a downside volatility measure; it is a useful …

This study provides analytical insight on modelling macroeconomic and oil price volatility in Nigeria. Mainly, the … GARCH - M); and oil price is a major source of macroeconomic volatility in Nigeria. By implication, the Nigerian economy is … vulnerable to both internal shocks (interest rate volatility, real GDP volatility) and external shocks (exchange rate volatility …

empirically analyze the behaviour of commodity prices and their volatility as predicted by the theory of storage. We examine two … is associated with forward curves in backwardation (contango), as the theory of storage predicts. Second, we show that … price volatility is a decreasing function of inventory for the majority of commodities in our sample. This effect is more …

The benefits of using flight-to-safety (FTS) in volatility forecasting are assessed within a multivariate GARCH … volatility. Moreover, when comparing with a benchmark and controlling for data snooping, we find that the proposed model yields …

the multivariate factor stochastic volatility (MSV) model, which is extremely efcient for fnancial market analysis and …

This paper analyzes high-frequency estimates of good and bad realized volatility of bitcoin. We show that volatility … asymmetry depends on the volatility regime and the forecast horizon. For one-day ahead forecasts, good volatility commands a … stronger impact on future volatility than bad volatility on average and in extreme volatility regimes but there is no clear …