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gathering picking up during the recession period. We also find that forecast revisions depend on both own country and cross …-country lagged revisions. Therefore, one source of information rigidity is not to incorporate overseas events in forecast revisions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014500886
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We consider a canonical asset pricing model, where agents with quadratic preferences are allowed to retrade a limited set of securities over multiple periods, after which these securities expire, and agents consume their liquidation values. A key assumption in this model is that agents have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833019
Although uncertainty plays an important role in economic decisionmaking, empirical measures of individuals' uncertainty are rare. The literature on cognition and communication documents that people use round numbers to convey uncertainty. This paper introduces a method of quantifying the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012972054
, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110732
each method. Last, we propose a combination forecast approach for estimating VaR. Our findings suggest that both the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013036001
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014282006
This article proposes a way of introducing some organization and tractability in climate science, generating more widely credible evaluations of climate science, and imposing some discipline on the processing and interpretation of climate information. I propose a two-part policy instrument...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014185534
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has implications for the estimation of economic models of energy-intensive durables, for oil price forecasting, and for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434566