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inadequate policy tools and theory from the interwar period, set the stage for the Great Inflation of the 1970s. The lessons from … that experience have convinced monetary authorities to reemphasize the goal of low inflation, as it were, committing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014024247
Major currency areas are characterized by important differences in financial structure that are clear in microeconomic data. Surprisingly, this fact is seldom discussed in the analysis of the international transmission of shocks. This paper attempts to fill this gap. First, I show some stylized...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013320193
The downturn in the world economy following the global banking crisis has left the Chinese economy relatively unscathed. This paper develops a model of the Chinese economy using a DSGE framework with a banking sector to shed light on this episode. It differs from other applications in the use of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009738893
In a recent paper, Atkeson and Kehoe (2004) demonstrated the lack of a robust empirical relationship between inflation … relationship by allowing for inflation and growth to have a nonlinear specification dependent on inflation levels. In particular …, we allow for the possibility that high inflation is negatively correlated with growth, while a positive relationship …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012729476
Since 2000 U.S. inflation has remained both below target and silent to domestic slack and monetary interventions. A … inflation. The trend analysis shows that, starting from the '90s, despite very well-anchored expectations, slow-moving imported … "cost-push" factors induced deflationary pressure keeping trend inflation below target. The cycle block provides evidence in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012795587
This monograph challenges the myth that the recent banking crisis was caused by insufficient statutory regulation of financial markets. Though it finds that statutory regulation failed, and that market participants took more risks than they should have done, it appears that statutory regulation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013156184
We integrate banks and the coexistence of bank and bond financing into an otherwise standard New Keynesian framework. There are two policy-makers: a central banker, who can decide on short-term nominal interest rates, and a macroprudential policy-maker, who can vary aggregate capital...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011894696
We investigate the directional accuracy of GDP and price forecasts by the Japanese government and the IMF with a new method developed by Pesaran and Timmermann [Pesaran, M.H., Timmermann, A., 2009. Testing dependence among serially correlated multi-category variables. Journal of the American...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013064586
We investigate the directional accuracy of GDP and price forecasts by the Japanese government and the IMF with a new method developed by Pesaran and Timmermann [Pesaran, M.H., Timmermann, A., 2009. Testing dependence among serially correlated multi-category variables. Journal of the American...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013065600
In this paper we propose a new indicator of monthly global real economic activity, named world steel production. We use world steel production, OECD industrial production index and Kilian's rea index to forecast world real GDP, and key commodity prices. We find that world steel production...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012953420