In this study, we analyze the forecast accuracy and profitability of buy recommendations published in five major German financial magazines for private households based on fundamental analysis. The results show a high average forecast accuracy but with a very high standard deviation, which...

Using a modified DCC-MIDAS specification that allows the long-term correlation component to be a function of multiple explanatory variables, we show that the stock-bond correlation in the US, the UK, Germany, France, and Italy is mainly driven by inflation and interest rate expectations as well...

We examine the pricing of tail risk in international stock markets. We find that the tail risk of different countries is highly integrated. Introducing a new World Fear index, we find that local and global aggregate market returns are mainly driven by global tail risk rather than local tail...

The Black-Litterman (BL) model aims to enhance asset allocation decisions by overcoming the weaknesses of standard mean-variance (MV) portfolio optimization. In this study we implement the BL model in a multi-asset portfolio context. Using an investment universe of global stock indices, bonds,...

We show that the ability of oil price changes to predict stock returns is largely limited to five extreme geopolitical events: the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the 1990/91 Persian gulf war, the 1986 OPEC collapse, and the 1973 Arab-Israel war. In the counterfactual...

We show that the ability of oil price changes to predict stock returns is largely limited to five extreme geopolitical events: the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the 1990/91 Persian gulf war, the 1986 OPEC collapse, and the 1973 Arab-Israel war. In the counterfactual...

The study employs the wavelet coherence and the spillover index methodologies to investigate time-varying relationship between green sukuk and selected assets from the crypto-currency and commodity markets between October 2019, and March 2022. The results of wavelet coherence indicated weak...

The 2017 Spring Meetings coincided with the surprise calling of snap general elections in the UK and military tensions in the Yellow Sea. Our postwar social contract has to cope with unprecedented shocks: Britain's thorny withdrawal from the EU, worsening Migrant Crisis, rise in populist...