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Since 2000 U.S. inflation has remained both below target and silent to domestic slack and monetary interventions. A … inflation. The trend analysis shows that, starting from the '90s, despite very well-anchored expectations, slow-moving imported … "cost-push" factors induced deflationary pressure keeping trend inflation below target. The cycle block provides evidence in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012795587
The present paper uses survey data on expected consumer price developments to analyse the role of inflation … expectations in the inflation process. The survey measures of price expectations are derived from the European Commission … estimates of the New Keynesian inflation model presented here underscore the importance of inflation expectations for the short …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011419361
cyclical fluctuation in inflation may be confused for a shift in the trend component. Bayesian estimation reveals that there …This paper seeks to document and explain the effect of a commodity price shock on underlying core inflation, and how … across many countries there was a break in the response of core inflation to a commodity price shock. In an earlier period, a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013036232
inflation persistence and reached diverging conclusions. In this paper we investigate the dynamics of inflation persistence … using fractionally integrated processes and find that there has been a clear decline in inflation persistence in the U … commensurate decline in inflation persistence in the other G7 economies …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012776993
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012501581
Research examining the usefulness of non-linear models for stock market returns has almost reached an impasse. While there is general recognition of the superior ability of non-linear models to describe the data, there is less certainty about their ability to forecast the data. As such simple...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013158958
There is a generalized conviction that variation in dividend yields is exclusively related to expected returns and not to expected dividend growth - e.g. Cochrane's presidential address (Cochrane (2011)). We show that this pattern, although valid for the aggregate stock market, is not true for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013036406
Regarding inflation as being a monetary phenomenon in the long-run is a widely-held view in modern macro economics. We … analyse this topic by means of a P-star model. Based on the quantity theory of money, this approach explains inflation via a …Die Aussage, dass Inflation langfristig ein monetäres Phänomen ist, ist eine grundlegende Erkenntnis der Makroökonomie …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011419407
The inability of central banks to attain their target inflation rates in recent years has raised questions about the … extent to which central banks can control the inflation process. This paper discusses the evolution of thought and evidence … since the 1960s on the determinants of inflation and the role that should be played by central banks. The paper highlights …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012615951
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011716315