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systematic exploration and forecasting of sovereign default risks. Multivariate statistical and stochastic process …-based sovereign default risk forecasting has a 50-year developmental history. This article describes a continuous, non …
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We examine how equity-market frictions that restrict pessimistic trading, such as short-sale constraints, affect assessments of default risk. We find that these frictions decrease the usefulness of equity-market variables for identifying defaulting firms but increase their usefulness for...
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This paper addresses the relationship between stock markets and credit default swaps (CDS) markets. In particular, I aim to gauge if the co-movement between stock prices and sovereign CDS spreads increases with the deterioration of the credit quality of sovereign debt. The analysis of...
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