Zehn Jahre bevor die Rezession in den 1990er Jahren stattfand, sagte Fred Harrison sie bereits voraus. 2010 rechnet er nun ausgehend von einer erneuten Immobilienkrise mit einer weltweiten Wirtschaftsrezession.

We integrate systemic financial instability in an empirical macroeconomic model for the euro area. We find that at times of widespread financial instability the macroeconomy functions fundamentally differently from tranquil times. We employ a richly specified Markov-Switching...

We estimate new indices measuring financial and economic (in)stability in Austria and in the euro area. Instead of estimating the level of (in)stability in a financial or economic system we measure the degree of predictability of (in)stability, where our methodological approach is based on the...