forecasting solutions. In this context, the paper develops new forecasting methods for an old problem by employing 13 machine … important variable. GDP per capita and consumer inflation have increased in prominence whereas debt-to-GDP, stock market and …

horizon-dependent biases and lower accuracy than simple unconditional uncertainty forecasts. We examine the inflation …

structural analysis and forecasting purposes. We study the evolution of inflation rates in several countries, using a novel model …Global developments play an important role in domestic inflation rates. Previous literature has found that a … substantial amount of the variation in a large set of national inflation rates can be explained by a single global factor. However …

, especially for output, inflation, and real equity prices. -- Forecasting using GVAR ; structural breaks and forecasting ; average …This paper considers the problem of forecasting real and financial macroeconomic variables across a large number of …-quarters-ahead forecasts of real output, inflation, real equity prices, exchange rates, and interest rates over the period 2004:Q1–2005:Q4 …

Forecasting the world economy is a difficult task given the complex interrelationships within and across countries …, first, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy and, second, at checking whether methods … forecasting directly aggregate variables (direct approaches) outperform methods based on the aggregation of country …

competing models. We show that the forecasting gains translate into economically and statistically significant (risk …

. To this aim, a hierarchical procedure based on an encompassing test is developed. Firstly, forecasting models are ranked … Economic Analyses) short-term forecasting models for monthly industrial production in Italy. -- combining forecasts …