This lecture argues that the Global Financial Cycle is a challenge for the validity of the Mundellian trilemma. I present evidence that US monetary policy shocks are transmitted internationally and affect financial conditions even in inflation targeting economies with large financial markets....

For the past few decades, international macroeconomics has postulated the "trilemma": with free capital mobility, independent monetary policies are feasible if and only if exchange rates are floating. The global financial cycle transforms the trilemma into a "dilemma" or an "irreconcilable duo":...

We construct novel text-based measures of firm-level cyber risk exposure based on quarterly earnings calls of 12,000+ firms from 85 countries over 20+ years. We categorize each cyber-related discussion into topics that capture sentiment, monetary loss, country names, etc. We document new facts...

International currencies fulfill different roles in the world economy with important synergies across those roles. We explore the implications of currency hegemony for the external balance sheet of the United States, the process of international adjustment, and the predictability of the US...

Cross border capital flows and returns on assets are two key variables in international macroeconomics. Difficult endogeneity issues plague any analysis of their correlations in aggregate data. This paper examines the dynamics of international portfolios with a unique data set on the stock...

Does the center country of the International Monetary System enjoy an "exorbitant privilege" that significantly weakens its external constraint as has been asserted in some European quarters? Using a newly constructed dataset, we perform a detailed analysis of the historical evolution of US...

We examine international equity allocations at the fund level and show how different returns on the foreign and domestic proportion of portfolios determine rebalancing behavior and trigger capital flows. We document the heterogeneity of rebalancing across fund types, its greater intensity under...

We analyze the workings of the "Global Financial Cycle." We study the effects of monetary policy of the United States, the center country of the international monetary system, on the joint dynamics of the domestic business cycle and international financial variables such as global credit growth,...

We provide an overview of the recent developments of the literature on the determinants of long term capital flows, global imbalances and valuation effects. We present the main stylized facts of the new international financial landscape in which external balance sheets of countries have grown in...